Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus cover
Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus
by Richard C. Carrier
ISBN: 1616145595
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lisper · 2016-11-24 · Original thread
Don't know about a paper, but here's a book:

https://www.amazon.com/Proving-History-Bayess-Theorem-Histor...