Umm..ok. But the point of Black Swan is that certain are unpredictable. Yet plenty of people saw the crisis coming [2,3]. Taleb was not one of them - please see [0]

If you are a Taleb fan (or just curious), check out this critique of his work:

[0] http://quixoticfinance.com/tag/nassim-taleb/

[1] http://unpleasantfacts.com/falken-on-taleb

People who actually predicted the crisis

[2] http://www.amazon.com/Greatest-Trade-Ever-Behind-Scenes/dp/0...

[3] http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Short-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393...