If your plan is "throw my money into a pit" that is not a good strategy, even if you stick to it. So no, we would not agree.

You ignore Nejat Seyhun's 1994 paper "Stock Market Extremes and Portfolio Performance" [0] which says:

> For the 1963-1993 time frame, the findings were similar. The index gained at an average annual rate of 11.83%, for a cumulative return on $1.00 of $23.30 over 31 years. If the best 90 trading days, or 1.2% of the 7,802 trading days, are set aside, the annual return tumbles to 3.28% and the cumulative gain falls to $1.10.

And from ARWDWS [1]:

> The past history of stock prices cannot be used to predict the future in any meaningful way. Technical strategies are usually amusing, often comforting, but of no real value.

Further:

> Using technical analysis for market timing is especially dangerous. Because there is a long-term uptrend in the stock market, it can be very risky to be in cash. An investor who frequently caries a large cash position to avoid periods of market decline is very likely to be out of the market during some periods where it rallies smartly.

[0] https://www.stayingrich.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Towne...

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/03933...

A Random Walk Down Wall Street[0] is a good book to explain the current state of Wall Street, and it outlines a pretty specific approach for investing.

[0] https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/03933...