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miked · 2010-03-07 · Original thread
You are a being very pessimistic. Europe and Japan declining in population? I find that hard to believe. Do you have figures to back that up?

I'm not the you responded to, but here goes:

Mark Steyn's book America Alone has much more on the implications, written in a rather witty style.

The only European country that is maintaining its population is France, and it only barely. In the Euro-Med countries the average number of births per female is about 1.3, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. In Japan (which has the oldest mean age in the world), pop is dropping so fast that they are permanently closing almost one primary school per day.

Greece bankrupt? Even if it were true, any negative consequences of that will be mitigated by the EU.

Technically not bankrupt yet, but Greece and most other European countries (and the US, at our current rate of debt growth) had better hope like hell for an AI breakthrough that pushes productivity rates thru the roof. Welfare states are pay-as-you-go plans, with the younger generation paying for retirement of the much smaller number of elderly. That only works as long as there are lots of young people and not many older folks. In other words, the cutbacks and riots in Greece and California these last few days are just the beginning w/o huge productivity breakthroughs. Let's hope that Ray Kurzweil is right.

And a country in turmoil will only have a positive effect on birthrate.


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