You experienced Brexit. You know how this happens.

Maybe 10% of voters have opinions on policy, platforms, parties.

The remainder vote based on identity and some vibes. Their ability to link politicians with their actual policies is worse than a coin toss.

Democracy for Realists [2016] https://www.amazon.com/Democracy-Realists-Elections-Responsi...

Us political hobbyists second guessing campaign strategies and decisions is mostly pointless.

Because final results more or less match the generic ballot. True, in close contests, there's some roshambo over individual states (cuz electoral college). Which is how Trump won 2016.

What happened with Harris v Trump? GOP party (self) identification is up (3% since 2020). Harris didn't pull Biden numbers. Pretty simple.

The real (campaign) questions, IMHO are:

Determine if Dem turnout (GOTV) in 2020 was the anomaly and 2024 is the actual norm.

Understand Latinos flipping from Dem to GOP.

Can a Democrat be the first (elected) female POTUS?

Now that Democrats are the minority party for the foreseeable future, what's the plan?

Term limits shift power away from the representatives that the public has democratically chosen and instead empowers those bureaucrats who serve in government for 40 or 50 years. Please see:

"Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government"

by Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels.

https://www.amazon.com/Democracy-Realists-Elections-Responsi...

If you want democratically elected representatives to be able to gain power over the machinery of government, then you should advocate for longer terms, without limits. If every Senator was elected for 15 years, we would get better government.

Sadly, at least for Trump, i think it came down to

1 party loyalty

2 identity politics

3 active voter suppression in key states

4 The Electoral College, which was designed to prevent this exact thing (demagoguery)

#1 & #2 are discussed in "Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government (Princeton Studies in Political Behavior)" https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691169446

#2 also discussed in "The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker (Chicago Studies in American Politics)" https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/022634911X

#3 and other dirty tricks discussed in "Ratfked: The True Story Behind the Secret Plan to Steal America's Democracy" https://www.amazon.com/Ratf-ked-Behind-Americas-Democracy/dp...

and

"The Great Suppression: Voting Rights, Corporate Cash, and the Conservative Assault on Democracy" https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/110190576X