Yes, though speculative investments can last for a long time. There's also the confluence of macroeconomic factors: the emergence of China, continuing massive savings rates in Japan with little to invest in domestically, the decision by Saudi Arabia to open a massive sovereign wealth spigot and the quantitative easing that occurred after 2008. Financial capital is incredibly cheap by historical standards.
That said, I find myself using one of the classic defences of a confident prognosticator: I am right / I will be right, except about the timing[0]. But to make more verifiable predictions I would need to start assigning probabilities to particular dates.
That said, I find myself using one of the classic defences of a confident prognosticator: I am right / I will be right, except about the timing[0]. But to make more verifiable predictions I would need to start assigning probabilities to particular dates.
[0] Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? is still a brilliant and amusing empirical study of opinionated forecasting: https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/d...