Daniel Gardner actually had a pretty good book on this topic as well [1] where he found that often times expert predictions were actually worse than those of an average person (or the flip of a coin, for that matter). On the Pundits and Policy wonks bit I think Nate Silver also had a good write-up in his book on Fox vs. Hedgehog [2] mentality, and why experts are so often wrong when they cannot incorporate as much experience from outside their own fields.

[1](https://www.amazon.com/Future-Babble-Expert-Predictions-Beli...) [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox)