Found in 3 comments on Hacker News
kqr · 2025-09-05 · Original thread
Yet this article, like thousand others, don't go beyond binary decisions. Binary decisions are fine for many everyday decisions like figuring out whether to get insurance[1] but the Kelly criterion goes well beyond that[2] without changing the fundamentals: estimate a joint probability distribution of the outcome for each alternative, evaluate E(log X) using it, and pick the alternative for which it is highest.

For a deeper introduction, I recommend the somewhat heavy Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion[3] which is a well-curated collection of papers on the Kelly criterion and its various uses.

[1]: https://xkqr.org/insurance/?wealth=0&offered=0

[2]: https://entropicthoughts.com/the-misunderstood-kelly-criteri...

[3]: https://www.amazon.com/KELLY-CAPITAL-GROWTH-INVESTMENT-CRITE...

kqr · 2022-02-08 · Original thread
I've long found that Wikipedia article woefully lacking in generality.

1) The Kelly criterion is a general decision rule not limited to bet sizing. Bet sizing is just a special case where you're choosing between actions that correspond to different bet sizes. The Kelly criterion works very well also for other actions, like whether to pursue project A or B, whether to get insurance or not, and indeed whether to sleep under a tree or on a rock.

2) The Kelly criterion is not limited to what people would ordinarily think of as "wealth". It applies just as well to anything you can measure with some sort of utility where compounding makes sense.

The best overview I've found so far is The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion[1], which unfortunately is a thick collection of peer-reviewed science, so it's very detailed and heavy on the maths, too.

[1]: https://www.amazon.com/KELLY-CAPITAL-GROWTH-INVESTMENT-CRITE...