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showerst · 2011-07-28 · Original thread
One interesting quirk of the US is that the two main parties have strongly differing strategies with respect to turnout at the state/national level.

The Republicans have a stronger 'base' that is more likely to turn out, while Democrats traditionally capture more undecided voters, but have a smaller base.

What this means is that in elections with lower overall turnout (Non-presidential year house races, for example) tend to favor Republicans, and their game-theoretic response is to generally 'Go after the Base' and swing more conservative (E.g. Reagan, Bush II, adding Palin to the McCain ticket, and the US House races in 2010 and 1994).

Democrats tend to have much more impetus to 'get out the vote' and get undecided voters to show up to the polls, even if they risk adding Republicans to the ranks, so you tend to comparatively more centrist Democrat Candidates (Clinton, Kerry, Obama). They also tend to do better nationally in Presidential Election years with high turnout (Ceteris Paribus).

If you have any interest in how this plays out in the actual nuts & bolts of voter targeting, Hal Malchow's "Political Targeting" (2nd Ed) is the Bible for beginners.

http://www.amazon.com/Political-Targeting-Second-Hal-Malchow...

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