Ray Dalio wrote a book on it [1]. But here is a short video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

1. https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/...

Right now the dollar is increasing in value but Ray Dallio makes the case[0][1] that eventually we will have to drop rates low again and "monetize the debt" which is to say, print too much money inflating the value of the dollar and then pay the debt off with that

This could lead to the dollar no longer being the reserve currency which would have other, much stranger implications.

Today debt payments rival military spending but there is a point where debt service becomes greater than GDP. Before that there are points of unsustainability that will likely be reached.

One possibility is that inflation will be tamed before then and the fed can lower rates. This seems unlikely to me.

Another possibility might be austerity measures and deep political compromise to pay down the debt to levels that are sustainable during high rates, this also feels quite unlikely to me.

[0] https://youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/...

Personally, I found his chat with Lex Fridman [1] pretty good where he covers the same topics. I suspect it's hard to take a 570 page book [2] and get into bullet/talking points without the context. When I read the book over the 2021-2022 holiday break I honestly found it a bit stressful since he's pretty much listing historical/present day facts, along with the data to back it up, and that's hard to argue with (vs his opinions). Guess take it for what it's worth, but I found it hard to read the book, then take a look around, and not think he might be onto something.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TISMidxdZoc

[2] https://www.amazon.ca/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/d...

> and have been telling each other that the dollar is going to collapse any year now every since.

The point of pegging a currency to something tangible, like gold, is to increase confidence in the currency. When the currency is pegged, it's much harder to just print money whenever the government wants to. Thus, pegged currencies are safe to do business in because they just won't evaporate overnight.

Remember: Currencies come and go, so the dollars, Euro, Yen, ect, will eventually be replaced by something else. Given the US Dollar's status as a reserve currency, it probably won't just "collapse any year now".

I'm currently reading "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail", https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/... The author, Ray Dalio, carefully explains the signs of when a currency is going to fail.

Highly recommend Ray Dalio's new book: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail [1]. If you want interview style he was on the Lex Fridman Podcast #251 too [2].

Takes a look at historical ups and downs and gives hard data without too much colour being added.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TISMidxdZoc

The book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail" by Ray Dalio compares the rise (and decline) of the American "world empire" to prior world empires. The two most recent are the U.K. and the Netherlands.

The same things that are happening now have happened before -- just not in our lifetimes. The history and his analysis is quite instructive.

The book was refreshing in its objectivity, lack of political bias, and clarity of writing. I've given copies to several friends.

It's pretty clear from his analysis and the data that the U.S. is in a decline of global influence.

https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/...