Found in 16 comments on Hacker News
shp0ngle · 2022-11-14 · Original thread
I didn’t understand probability, until I read E T Jaynes Probability Theory: Logic of Science

It defines the base blocks of probability very, very slow. And never hand-waves anything. But it’s the “bayesian” view of probability; but it’s honestly the easier one to understand.

flubert · 2020-10-14 · Original thread
Ack. I can't believe I messed that up. He wrote an awesome book: "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science".

And there is a website with more information and a collection of his papers:

dmix · 2020-05-29 · Original thread
I'm currently reading up on formal logic in order to fully understand Probability Theory by E. T. Jaynes [1] and I've found it difficult to find a good logic book. There's a thousand on Amazon and it's hard to tell which ones are written a century ago w/ re-released dates with old notation or missing some new ideas. An "original publishing" data feature on Amazon would be a godsend.

I've seen a few well reviewed Symbolic logic books but not sure if that fits the criteria. Mostly digging into boolean algebra atm.


Rochus · 2020-01-23 · Original thread
When we hear the name Adorno, we have to tremble with awe, don't we?

>> A school of thought[0] specifically denotes a commitment to a particular method or set of principles

Agree, but this does not improve the quality of the sentences uttered by the members of this "school" (sorry if I'm hurting the feelings of any Marxists here).

>> Besides, the Frankfurt School never claimed to be carrying out science.

Well, in German language there is the word "Geisteswissenschaft" which includes philosophy; they have not the same conception of science like the English speaking world. See e.g.

Among other things I also attended many years of philosophy lectures. As far as the philosophy of science is concerned, I think it should go more in this direction:

jonnybgood · 2015-06-11 · Original thread
The style reminds me of E.T. Jaynes' Probability Theory: The Logic of Science[0]. If you haven't read it, I highly recommend it.


m_ke · 2014-12-25 · Original thread
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

I might add that what made me understand these concepts is the writings of physicist and probability theorist E.T. Jaynes, especially his unpublished manuscripts:

I think if he would have been alive at the right time these would have been blog posts. Before reading them, I had taken an intro class in thermodynamics which at left me completely confused.

Read THE EVOLUTION OF CARNOT'S PRINCIPLE ( ) for incredible insights on how Carnot pioneered thermodynamics by trying to optimize steam engines.

Also if you think you dislike statistics and probabilities but you like math in general his book might change your mind: Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Free draft:


In fact understanding his stance on probabilities, the mind projection fallacy in particular might be prerequisite to understand thermodynamics, the fundamental point being that entropy is not really directly a property of matter but more of a meta property that is about knowledge or information which is taken to mean correlations across aggregate matter.

danso · 2012-10-10 · Original thread
Going to Amazon right now...

* edit: Doh, no Kindle version. I don't mind paying $90+ for a good book though, just like it to be electronic:

I can't find the book with that title, do you have a link or ISBN? is the closest match but it does not seem to match your description.
alecco · 2011-03-05 · Original thread
This is terrible advice. There are almost always unexpected unknowns.

There's a human (irrational) bias to be risk averse, but that doesn't mean it's always safer than we think. We also have selection bias as a counterpoint. There are plenty of similar posts with the opposing view based on the later bias, too.

Instead, let's try to be more rational and understand probability:

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (draft)

alecco · 2011-01-29 · Original thread
Also, Jaynes had a very interesting take on how to address these issues.

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (draft)

See also: Probability, The Logic Of Science, by E.T. Jaynes.

Available here:

The introduction/first chapter has a nice example about a policeman concluding a crime is being committed that's very relevant here.

hc · 2009-08-24 · Original thread
the products of a thing often supersede it.

in this case, the development of inference is certainly a consequence of the development of the scientific method. but the validity of the latter is a mathematical consequence of the validity of the former. bayesian inference is more fundamental.

another good book that informs my personal views on this matter:

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