Found 1 comment on HN
confluence · 2012-12-05 · Original thread
I have a significant fraction of my net worth invested in TSLA and have done so since the IPO. I believe TSLA will become a $50 billion dollar company over the forthcoming decade as it rides 2 cost trends and global GDP growth. Elon Musk does too - his renumeration package has TSLA pegged at a possible ~ $43 billion (http://seekingalpha.com/article/786711-a-43-billion-tesla-mu...).

I add to my position every month when vol. gets high - so please don't buy it :)

Fundamentally what people must understand is that electric cars have reached ICE parity in cost, use and ease of maintenance. Furthermore they either have, or will surpass, ICE vehicles in all categories over the coming decades on a total cost of ownership calculation. Finally by the end of the decade the lump sum cost of a comparable middle class electric vehicle at the dealer (or website) will be lower than an equivalent ICE vehicle on the day that you buy it.

There are 2 fundamental price forces driving this phenomena - and that is peak oil, in addition to Li-on battery production related to the explosive growth of smartphones/laptops/tablets over the last decade. Indeed this is what I look for in any investment strategy - where is the falling waterfall in cost, who is going to get fucked, and who is going to ride the barrel down. Falling prices drive the future - look for converging falling cost trends and a convergence of secondary technologies (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v... || http://www.amazon.com/Running-Money-Honchos-Monster-Markets/... || http://gigaom.com/2006/10/26/jawed-karim-how-youtube-took-of...).

> In the talk, which is about 45 minutes long, Karim also points to the confluence of broadband penetration, Flash 7, digital cameras and phones, and cheap bandwidth as environmental factors for YouTube’s birth on February 14, 2005. Then he plays the company’s very first video. Uploaded April 23, 2005, it shows Karim himself standing in front of elephants at the zoo. “The cool thing about these guys it they have really, really, really long trunks,” he says. That’s about it.

Gas prices will increase over the next 2 decades whilst battery costs will fall, squeezing ICE vehicles out the affordability range of most Americans.

Back in 1900 electric vehicles died because battery tech was not cost competitive with ICE vehicles, and rightly so, they sucked. In 2012, ICE vehicles began to die, because they were no longer competitive with electric vehicles.

Welcome to the future.

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