Found in 11 comments on Hacker News
hellbanner · 2015-09-15 · Original thread
After reading, I'm not sure anyone is competent for that..
patrickk · 2013-12-12 · Original thread
Yeah what you're describing is a well known phenomenon in financial markets called counterparty risk[1]. Those betting against the subprime mortgage bubble prior to 2007 for example feared that those institutions accepting their exotic CDS bets would actually go out of business when the subprime bubble popped[2], and the bets wouldn't be realised.

It's a sign of immaturity of the bitcoin economy that there's no trustworthy effective bitcoin shorting options- even if you don't wish to speculate, but because you wish to hedge your exposure to bitcoin volatility (say you're a large ecommerce player, with significant bitcoin holdings- you're effectively long bitcoin - and you don't want those holdings to halve in value overnight).



omonra · 2013-10-14 · Original thread
Umm..ok. But the point of Black Swan is that certain are unpredictable. Yet plenty of people saw the crisis coming [2,3]. Taleb was not one of them - please see [0]

If you are a Taleb fan (or just curious), check out this critique of his work:



People who actually predicted the crisis



robomartin · 2013-09-13 · Original thread
Two more words: research facts

Yes, there was/is blame to be placed at the feet of corporations. That is probably undeniable. However, it is important to understand root causes here. The truth is hard to stomach for anyone who pro-big-government. The single gating element or decision that opened the doors to what would become the financial meltdown of the century was the US government's decision that everyone should be able to buy a house. Facts and qualifications be damned. Congress wanted everyone to buy a home. So, they loosened all the controls and actually pushed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to facilitate lending. It was: Go! Go! Go!

That, and that alone, enabled what followed. Without this gate being opened it would have been imposiible. --as in absolutley fucking no-way impossible-- for masses of bullshit mortgages to be issued and CDO's to follow.

Blame executives all you want for playing within the framework given to them by legislators but, please, be sure to take to task the true monsters who got us here.

BTW, this is not partisan. Both sides of the isle have blood on their hands on this one.

Suggested reading:

EDIT: My guess as to why nobody has been prosecuted is that a lot of politicians would be exposed through these actions. And, of course, they want to be as far removed from that kind of exposure as possible. The truth is not what they are after. They want votes. None of this would gain them votes and, in fact, might land some of them on the street or in jail.

NatW · 2012-12-25 · Original thread
The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine - Michael Lewis. A highly-entertaining insider's view of the mortgage/financial debacle.

In the Garden of Beasts: Love, Terror, and an American Family in Hitler's Berlin - Erik Larson Highly entertaining non-fiction that reads like fiction. Accounts of the build-up to hitler's Germany like you're actually there.

fname · 2011-04-14 · Original thread
If anyone is interested in this, I highly recommend reading "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine"[1] by Michael Lewis. It talks about Greg Lippmann (mentioned in the article) and how he and others cashed out before the impending crash in 2008.


Tangurena · 2010-08-06 · Original thread
If it is possible to predict a financial crisis, then it is possible to make a profit off of that crisis. The immediately obvious conclusion is then that it is worth provoking financial crises when it is possible to predict them.

In Michael Lewis' book The Big Short, this is exactly what several folks did when they figured out how to use credit default swaps to short CDO bonds.

fname · 2010-04-28 · Original thread
If anyone listened to the hearings, they quoted a part from the book, "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine" which discusses some of what the author thinks were the inner workings. I've been reading through it now and cannot recommend it enough.

portman · 2010-04-04 · Original thread
If this article piqued your interest, please PLEASE read The Big Short by Michael Lewis, in which he tells the entire, fascinating story of Michael Burry, the one-eyed genius with Asburger's who fought against the entire Wall Street establishment.

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