"Ever since the SARS outbreak of 2002-03, after all, paper after paper and countless popular pieces have warned that, sooner or later, nature would produce the next big SARS."

In 1995 Laurie Garrett warned about how the world could be brought to its knees by another airborne flu-like illness in "The Coming Plague".[1]

The first SARS and avian flu and swine flu, and CJD and mad cow disease were just more warnings that humans were continuing to play russian roulette with the way they were living with an using animals. Virologists knew this and warned about this, but the rest of the world chose to ignore them.

As things return to "normal" for the parts of the world lucky enough to get vaccinated it's likely that we're going to return to sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that this could never happen again, especially if we believe SARS 2 was created by humans instead of being just another natural disease... with probably a bunch more waiting in the wings.

[1] - https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balan...

Right now I enjoy reading The Coming Plague https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balan... Written 1995, but incredibly actual. Shows that most of epidemics are function of political will and economy and vice versa.

I read The Coming Plague in the 90s: https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balan...

These aren't hard predictions.

"The Coming Plague" is a book from 1994 that gave him plenty of credit. I read it a long time ago, but definitely remember it talking about him. It focuses on "virus hunters" from the CDC/WHO that tracked down a lot of these emerging diseases in the field. I highly recommend it.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/1995/08/ebola-africa-outbrea...

https://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balan...

Disease is going to be a major problem in the 21st century in general. Antibiotic resistance, diseases that "jump" from wildlife to humans, and even, perhaps, bioweapons, all seem to be major threats. Those interested in reading more might check out:

* Laurie Garrett's The Coming Plague http://amzn.to/2c9Vsoh

* David Quammen's Spillover http://amzn.to/2cm4ONj

Garrett's book is particularly good. I've not read a better summary of the political, economic, and social power disease will have over the next century.

If you are interested in reading more about diseases that have seen recent emergence (or rather, emergent diagnosis[1]), The Coming Plague[2] by Laurie Garrett, ISBN 0140250913, is a good read. It details the modern origin cases that led to the characterization of a number of diseases, including Marburg, Ebola, Legionnaires' Disease, and Lassa fever. It also talks about their epidemiology and the optimism of the mid-20th century for eradication of things like malaria, as well as the resulting challenges. The book reads like a thriller because the scientists involved are heroic and colorful, and have stories worth telling.

1. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/750.full

2. http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases/dp...

The first sentence is (at least to me) obviously untrue -- their have been people clearly and publicly saying this is a serious problem since at least the mid-90's. The book "The Coming Plague" came out in 1995, and discusses almost this exact scenario: http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases/dp...

There is little spending on public health issues, crumbling infrastructure, and, due to ease of travel and overcrowding, diseases spread faster then ever before.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases/dp...

One of the factors that keeps Ebola from causing massive epidemics and pandemics is it's rapid mortality rate. It kills people relatively fast and consistently, so outbreaks often burn themselves out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease#Epidemiolo...

If you're curious, The Coming Plague is a very interesting book that covers many hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola: http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases/dp...

There's a lot of info in the book "The Coming Plague" about the initial reaction to the disease GRID, which would later become AIDS.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases/dp...