These are fair points. I've met Patrick in person and used to follow patrick.net a while ago (>4 years ago), but the discussion threads appear to have gone downhill a bit. But as someone else pointed out, there are some FAQs there that provide a useful counter to the conventional wisdom. Also it looks like Patrick now has a book out you can buy on Amazon.com:
http://www.amazon.com/Housing-Trap-Buyers-Captured-Yourself/...
Put another way, even if there's an 0.9 probability that the advice there is wrong, buying a house is nevertheless the most significant purchase of your life for most people. It's also a very illiquid purchase, meaning it's difficult to sell and you need it to appreciate ~7% just to make back what you paid (that's because of Realtor(tm) commissions). You owe it to yourself to seek out a different opinion even if there's only a 0.1 probability it's accurate.
Edit with an addendum: My goal is not necessarily to get people to avoid Realtors(tm). This is not yet possible given the state of the market; I made some effort in that direction and was unsuccessful when I bought a single-family home on the SF peninsula. Instead, it's to get folks to realize that especially in coastal markets, they are likely not worth it, have minimal mandated training, and do not necessarily have your best interests in mind. In the long run, what I'd like to do is encourage HN readers to come up with ways to make real estate transactions more efficient. Some Realtors(tm) with deep knowledge will probably stay in the industry; most others will end up doing something more productive with their lives.
Put another way, even if there's an 0.9 probability that the advice there is wrong, buying a house is nevertheless the most significant purchase of your life for most people. It's also a very illiquid purchase, meaning it's difficult to sell and you need it to appreciate ~7% just to make back what you paid (that's because of Realtor(tm) commissions). You owe it to yourself to seek out a different opinion even if there's only a 0.1 probability it's accurate.
Edit with an addendum: My goal is not necessarily to get people to avoid Realtors(tm). This is not yet possible given the state of the market; I made some effort in that direction and was unsuccessful when I bought a single-family home on the SF peninsula. Instead, it's to get folks to realize that especially in coastal markets, they are likely not worth it, have minimal mandated training, and do not necessarily have your best interests in mind. In the long run, what I'd like to do is encourage HN readers to come up with ways to make real estate transactions more efficient. Some Realtors(tm) with deep knowledge will probably stay in the industry; most others will end up doing something more productive with their lives.