http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/1...

> “The probability of it happening again in our lifetime is as close to zero as I could imagine,”

How cute!

If you're interested in these types of "predictions" and assigning "probability" to your predictions, and then I highly recommend reading this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail/dp/...

Some gems:

“Virtually no one, be they homeowners, financial institutions, rating agencies, regulators or investors, anticipated what is coming.” Nobody saw it coming. When you can’t state your innocence, proclaim your ignorance: this is often the first line of defense when there is a failed forecast.

We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things— and we aren’t very good at it.

Financial crises— and most other failures of prediction— stem from this false sense of confidence. Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones, and some of us get fooled and double-down our bets.

Here's my take - Morgan Stanley actually have good forecastings that there is another bubble (I would argue the education system, and the failing Euro). By instilling confidence that there isn't, it makes their bet even controllable.

"Consider Phlebas"

http://www.amazon.com/dp/031600538X

"Chaos: Making a New Science"

http://www.amazon.com/dp/0143113453

"The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't"

http://www.amazon.com/dp/159420411X

"I hope he takes some time to clear up what it is he actually does, and what statistics are and aren't capable of."

He wrote a whole book about it.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/159420411X

Signal and the noise by Nate Silver(Very nice read. Chapters on climate change and GDP forecasting were a bit slow, but everything else was a page turner) http://www.amazon.com/dp/159420411X

Why I left Goldman Sachs by Greg Smith (Good insight into the 2008 financial breakdown and a look into the day to day operations of Goldman Sachs) http://www.amazon.com/Why-Left-Goldman-Sachs-Street/dp/14555...

The Hobbit http://www.amazon.com/Hobbit-There-Again-Illustrated-Author/...

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques(Great intro into data mining) http://www.amazon.com/Data-Mining-Concepts-Techniques-Manage...

Programming Collective Intelligence(You can play around with actual implementations of the concepts in the previous book) http://www.amazon.com/Programming-Collective-Intelligence-Bu...

Ghost in the Wires by Kevin Mitnick (Was really nice to see the details behind Mitnick's adventures) http://www.amazon.com/Ghost-Wires-Adventures-Worlds-Wanted/d...

On War By Clausewitz(Really enjoyed this book.)http://www.amazon.com/War-Carl-von-Clausewitz/dp/1448676290