If you're interested in these types of "predictions" and assigning "probability" to your predictions, and then I highly recommend reading this book:
“Virtually no one, be they homeowners, financial institutions, rating agencies, regulators or investors, anticipated what is coming.” Nobody saw it coming. When you can’t state your innocence, proclaim your ignorance: this is often the first line of defense when there is a failed forecast.
We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things— and we aren’t very good at it.
Financial crises— and most other failures of prediction— stem from this false sense of confidence. Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones, and some of us get fooled and double-down our bets.
Here's my take - Morgan Stanley actually have good forecastings that there is another bubble (I would argue the education system, and the failing Euro). By instilling confidence that there isn't, it makes their bet even controllable.
"Chaos: Making a New Science"
"The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't"
He wrote a whole book about it.
Why I left Goldman Sachs by Greg Smith (Good insight into the 2008 financial breakdown and a look into the day to day operations of Goldman Sachs)
Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques(Great intro into data mining)
Programming Collective Intelligence(You can play around with actual implementations of the concepts in the previous book)
Ghost in the Wires by Kevin Mitnick (Was really nice to see the details behind Mitnick's adventures)
On War By Clausewitz(Really enjoyed this book.)http://www.amazon.com/War-Carl-von-Clausewitz/dp/1448676290
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