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This assumes that China will make a good faith effort not to invade Taiwan sometimes 2028+. Current geopol intel is that they fully intend to without immense US deterrence.

Right now, you're more of the post-2014 invasion of Crimea camp, "let's not act too rash about helping Ukraine against Russia, hopefully they won't do anything more."

From someone who predicted the invasion of Ukraine: https://www.amazon.com/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Cent...

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